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DTN Midday Livestock Comments 11/12 11:43
Support From Equity Markets Helps Drive Livestock Contracts Higher
Asking cash cattle prices of $188 to $189 are currently noted in the South,
but Northern feedlots have yet to establish their asking prices.
ShayLe Stewart
DTN Livestock Analyst
GENERAL COMMENTS:
The livestock complex is trading mostly higher into Tuesday's noon hour as
the uptick in the equity markets is helping drive positive momentum throughout
the livestock contracts. Still no cash cattle trade has developed but asking
prices are noted in the South at $188 to $189. December corn is down 2 cents
per bushel and December soybean meal is down $0.90. The Dow Jones Industrial
Average is down 253.65 points.
LIVE CATTLE:
Originally the live cattle complex was reluctant to trade higher but as
Tuesday progressed traders have changed their tune and now the market is
modestly higher into Tuesday's noon hour. Seeming to help add a little
additional fundamental support is the higher note of morning boxed beef prices,
which was the theme throughout Monday's trade as well. It's still too early in
the week for any cash cattle trade to have developed, but it's expected that
prices will be steady at best. Asking prices are noted in the South at $188 to
$189 but are still not established in the North. The change in the market's
direction has thankfully pulled the spot December contract away from its
100-day moving average, which continues to be a threshold the market is
contemplating. December live cattle are up $0.80 at $184.47, February live
cattle are up $0.80 at $186.17, and April live cattle are up $0.95 at $187.70.
Boxed beef prices are higher: choice up $0.61 ($308.82) and select up $0.36
($282.20) with a movement of 71 loads (39.79 loads of choice, 22.43 loads of
select, zero loads of trim and 8.80 loads of ground beef).
FEEDER CATTLE:
With the live cattle market's support, the feeder cattle complex is also
trading higher into Tuesday's noon hour as the market continues to follow
closely in line with whatever the live cattle market does. November feeders are
up $0.35 at $246.50, January feeders are up $0.95 at $243.20, and March feeders
are up $1.17 at $241.22. The spot January contract is trading slightly above
both its 100-day and 40-day moving averages, but the market will need continued
support if it's going to maintain its elevated position through Tuesday's end
and later this week.
LEAN HOGS:
It's interesting to watch the dynamics currently in the lean hog complex as
the nearby contracts are trading slightly higher, but the deferred months are
trending mostly lower. From a solely fundamental sense, you'd expect the hog
complex to be trading slightly lower as this morning yet again pork cutout
values are lower because of a significant drop in the belly (down $8.92) and
there has not been enough competition in the cash market for hog prices to even
be reported. But with the equity markets thriving, the nearby contracts are
choosing to continue to trade higher. December lean hogs are up $0.70 at
$82.47, February lean hogs are up $0.45 at $86.35, and April lean hogs are down
$0.07 at $89.90.
The projected CME Lean Hog Index for 11/11/2024 is down $0.14 at $89.88, and
the actual index for 11/8/2024 is down $0.41 at $90.02. Hog prices are
unavailable on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report because of confidentiality.
However, we can see that only 3,563 head have traded and that the market's
five-day rolling average now sits at $84.01. Pork cutouts total 196.68 loads
with 181.65 loads of pork cuts and 15.02 loads of trim. Pork cutout values:
down $2.23, $99.23.
ShayLe Stewart can be reached shayle.stewart@dtn.com
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